The coronavirus crisis is a world-changing event. Here are seven elements for business leaders to consider as they plan for the next normal.
Dealing with the coronavirus crisis and its aftermath could be the imperative of our times. Indeed, we have argued that it augurs the “imminent restructuring of the global economic order.” As Ian Davis, one of our previous managing partners, wrote in 2009 in the midst of the global financial crisis:
As the business impact of the COVID-19 crisis mounts, leaders in every industry are moving urgently to protect employees and build resilience. Governments are mobilizing to safeguard citizens and manage the economic fallout. Immediate action is critical, but leaders must also embrace a new agenda—one aimed squarely at what comes next.
The world is being flooded with data and models attempting to predict how the COVID-19 pandemic will unfold for our healthcare systems and economies. Unfortunately, trying to create static point estimates — whether that is active cases, R0, lockdowns, GDP, recovery rates — is a fool’s errand at this point in time. This can be seen in the wild disparity in estimates from experts, whether epidemiologists or economists, and in the gyrations of the financial markets.
The coronavirus pandemic is boosting demand for medical services, resulting in upward revisions to our healthcare expenditure forecasts. Every country is reacting differently to the outbreak due to variations in healthcare systems, government alertness and cultural norms, such as propensity to self-isolate.
Despite high levels of investment, a vaccine that protects against the coronavirus is unlikely to be made available in 2020. Restrictions on manufacturing of active pharmaceutical ingredients and medical product protectionism could negatively affect the downstream provision of healthcare services.
